Our boxing betting expert breaks down the Jermell Charlo-Brian Castano super-welterweight bout in Carson, Calif., Saturday night in a fight to determine a rare undisputed champion. Charlo and Castaño captivated fight fans with their thrilling super-welterweight title unification bout last July. The elation Charlo and Castaño provided for 12 entertaining and close rounds resulted in the inevitable outcome. Charlo and Castaño fought to a draw and rematch demands began immediately after both fighters left the ring.
Back by popular demand, Charlo and Castaño will do it again Saturday night in Carson, Calif. Boxing’s four major sanctioning body titles will be at stake in an attempt to crown a rare undisputed champion.
Charlo, of Richmond, Texas, is recognized by three sanctioning bodies as their titleholder, while Argentina’s Castaño holds the fourth belt. In the first bout, Charlo (34-1-1, 18 KOs) and Castaño (17-0-2, 12 KOs) split two judges’ verdicts while the third judge scored it a draw.
The first match featured the contrasting styles of the pressing Castaño and boxing-minded Charlo. However, both deviated from their strategies during the fight.
At times, Charlo punched effectively from close quarters while Castaño connected from medium range. Nonetheless, Charlo again should utilize his six-inch reach advantage with effective lead jabs and follow-up shots.
In the first bout, Castaño was adept at cutting distance and hurting Charlo near the ropes. Both fighters absorbed early power shots that could have resulted in a shorter duration. With Charlo and Castaño having tasted the best of each other’s punches, look for the rematch to exceed the total.
Castaño’s relentless pressure in the first match again will be the obvious strategy. The Argentine’s volume punching played a role in his winning scorecard. He kept bringing the heat at the taller Charlo, who will need to block or slip more effectively in the rematch.
If Charlo keeps the three-minute rounds in the middle of the ring, the scorecards should favor him. Charlo’s use of the lead jab again will frustrate Castaño and keep him at distance. For Charlo, another key again will be to avoid a retreat toward the ropes and the infighting advantages that favor Castaño.
Both can turn a bout’s tide with one punch. However, the likelihood is the rematch seems headed for another distance-lasting conclusion.
The best outcome that won’t include the judges favor Charlo. And such scenario points to the so called “championship” final three rounds.
Reducing Castaño’s punch output will be a tall task. But if Charlo again maintains jab usage at a high percentage and moves in angles, it could gradually frustrate Castaño as the rounds elapse. Charlo can borrow from Dmitry Bivol’s game plan in his masterful boxing performance to outclass Saul “Canelo” Alvarez last Saturday. The jab was the key that catapulted Bivol to his victory over Alvarez and Charlo can frustrate Castaño with repeated jabs that will create follow-up shots to end the bout in the closing rounds. The first bout featured Charlo landing the cleaner and effective shots in rounds 10 through 12. Keeping Castaño at a distance and neutralizing him with jabs and follow-up shots could create the opening for a late stoppage win.
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